Oil’s Financials are Falling Apart

Hydrocarbons borrow energy from the past

Set aside climate for a moment and ask a simpler question: is continued growth in energy use structurally viable?

The classic de-growth argument says “no” because most modern energy comes from hydrocarbons (oil, gas, coal). These are finite geologic windfalls, so we’re effectively living off photosynthesis from millions of years ago. As those reserves deplete, the claim goes, society must ratchet back to something closer to nature’s replenishment rate.

In the long run, this is a pretty good argument against hydrocarbons! We’ve probably used around 50% of accessible oil reserves and depletion raises extraction effort [1]. The more oil we pump, the more expensive the next marginal oil becomes [2].

Founder’s Guide to Executive Skills

Being a founder requires many skills. As your company grows these skills overlap with those of an executive. To this end I’ve really enjoyed and learned a lot from the following episodes of Tom Henschel’s executive coaching podcast The Look and Sound of Leadership among others.

Last updated July 2025

The Factory's Quote is the Product

Machine shops’ value prop has come unbundled

Shops historically offered a bundle of services to their customer around usually a single type of production process (eg laser cutting, bending, powder coating, etc). Since finding, evaluating, quoting, and scaling with a shop was very involved, customers were extremely sticky.

This is still the case for most large scale production. But the system didn’t work for everyone and a revolution has started. Small startups who just wanted to buy a 25 parts, hobbyists building project cars, and even engineers at big companies who needed parts the next day for their prototype were delayed, ignored, and overcharged by shops who could only process a few, highest priority requests at a time.

Companies serving these markets with the help of new technology have now started the irreversible unbundling of the machine shop ecosystem:

Gold Mines & Self-Terminating Business Models

The Scooby-Doo ladder magnate isn’t just a cartoon punch-line, he’s a warning label. For forty years, Silicon Valley has been trained to worship businesses that compound indefinitely: SaaS dashboards that bill monthly, network effects that snowball, and margins that expand with every extra user.

Deep-tech plays in larger markets than SaaS but by a very different rulebook. Many businesses look less like revenue compounders than process compounder [1] and the revenue you do have looks like a discovery of gold. Finding gold is rare and it’s not necessarily a given you can strike it twice.

Basic Capital's Big Idea: Bet Your Retirement on Interest Rates

I just saw a Tweet for how Basic Capital can help you 5x the size of your retirement portfolio by borrowing money.

There’s definitely a way to lose all your money.

But more importantly, Basic butchers the entire philosophy of investing for retirement.